39 resources found

Tags: Models

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  • Guidance Document

    Thinning Guidance for British Columbia

    This document serves as a comprehensive manual for forest professionals, outlining best practices for thinning operations effective April 2025. Its primary purpose is to support sustainable forest management by providing science-based guidelines for ...
    This document serves as a comprehensive manual for forest professionals, outlining best practices for thinning operations effective April 2025. Its primary purpose is to support sustainable forest management by providing science-based guidelines for developing and implementing thinning prescriptions, particularly for enhancing timber production and quality. The guidance emphasizes maintaining ecological and social objectives while focusing on operational efficiency, minimizing environmental impacts, and promoting innovative approaches. It also details the required data collection and monitoring processes to ensure the effectiveness and compliance of thinning activities, thereby fostering healthy, resilient forest ecosystems across British Columbia.
  • Extension Note

    Equivalent Clearcut Area as an Indicator of Hydrologic Change in Snow-dominated Watersheds of Southern British Columbia

    This extension note introduces Equivalent Clearcut Area, a metric used to assess the potential impact of forest disturbances, like logging or fires, on watershed hydrology in snow-dominated regions of British Columbia. The document explains how ECA i...
    This extension note introduces Equivalent Clearcut Area, a metric used to assess the potential impact of forest disturbances, like logging or fires, on watershed hydrology in snow-dominated regions of British Columbia. The document explains how ECA is calculated by accounting for the area disturbed and the subsequent forest regrowth, which influences water interception, evaporation, and transpiration. It details the historical development and application of ECA in forest management planning, highlighting its use as an indicator for potential changes in streamflow and peak flow events. While acknowledging ECA's utility as a simplified tool for risk assessment and comparing management options, the note also stresses its limitations, emphasizing that it should not be used as a stand-alone metric due to the complex and variable nature of watershed responses to disturbance.
  • Extension Note

    Modelling Forest Harvesting Effects on Maximum Daily Peak Flow at Upper Penticton Creek

    This research models the impact of forest harvesting on peak streamflows in a small, snow-dominated watershed in British Columbia. Using a sophisticated hydrological model, the study simulated various clearcutting scenarios to understand how the remo...
    This research models the impact of forest harvesting on peak streamflows in a small, snow-dominated watershed in British Columbia. Using a sophisticated hydrological model, the study simulated various clearcutting scenarios to understand how the removal of forest cover influences the magnitude and frequency of high flow events. The findings indicate that forest harvesting consistently increases peak flows, with larger, less frequent events showing a more significant response, though the predicted increases were less than 50% even with complete forest removal. The study highlights the importance of watershed characteristics like topography and size in determining the extent of these changes and emphasizes the ongoing need for research to improve water resource management in forested areas.
  • Case Study

    Effects of Aspen Brushing on Lodgepole Pine Yields Using TASS 2.0776

    This document details a study using the TASS II growth model to assess how different forest management techniques impact the timber production of lodgepole pine in mixed stands with aspen. Prepared for the Interior Broadleaf Working Group, the report...
    This document details a study using the TASS II growth model to assess how different forest management techniques impact the timber production of lodgepole pine in mixed stands with aspen. Prepared for the Interior Broadleaf Working Group, the report simulates various scenarios involving different densities of aspen and several treatments like brushing at different ages and herbicide application. The core purpose is to provide guidance on choosing the most effective brushing strategies to maximize conifer timber objectives in the Prince George Timber Supply Area, by analyzing the projected growth and yield of lodgepole pine under these varying conditions. The study meticulously examines factors such as site index, height growth, tree survival, and ultimately, the merchantable volume of pine achieved with and without intervention.
  • Case Study

    Impact of Landscape-Scale Broadleaf Cover on Average Fire Size and Considerations of Fuel Succession Dynamics

    This document explores the impact of broadleaf cover, specifically aspen stands, on the size of wildfires in British Columbia. Employing fire behavior modeling, the authors examine how varying extents of aspen-dominated landscapes can act as a natura...
    This document explores the impact of broadleaf cover, specifically aspen stands, on the size of wildfires in British Columbia. Employing fire behavior modeling, the authors examine how varying extents of aspen-dominated landscapes can act as a natural fence to impede fire spread under different weather conditions, including extreme scenarios. Furthermore, the report delves into fuel succession dynamics in aspen stands, highlighting how their effectiveness as firebreaks changes over time as they mature and are replaced by conifers. This work considers the strategic scheduling of landscape vegetation to leverage aspen's fire-resistant properties for proactive fire management.
  • Case Study

    The Effects of Aspen Brushing Strategies on White Spruce and Lodgepole Pine Yield Outcomes Using the Mixedwood Growth Model (MGM)

    This document presents a study investigating how different methods of controlling aspen growth impact the future yield of white spruce and lodgepole pine. The research utilizes the Mixedwood Growth Model for British Columbia to simulate various sce...
    This document presents a study investigating how different methods of controlling aspen growth impact the future yield of white spruce and lodgepole pine. The research utilizes the Mixedwood Growth Model for British Columbia to simulate various scenarios, including different initial aspen densities and brushing treatments. By comparing the resulting timber volumes and mean annual increment at a rotation age of 75 years across different subzone site series, the study aims to identify the most effective brushing approaches for maximizing the productivity of the coniferous species in mixedwood stands.
  • Peer-Reviewed Literature

    Climate change Mitigation in British Columbia's Forest Sector GHG Reductions Costs and Environmental Impacts

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of various strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within British Columbia's forestry sector. The study uses a systems perspective, evaluating the impact of different forest management and wood utili...
    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of various strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within British Columbia's forestry sector. The study uses a systems perspective, evaluating the impact of different forest management and wood utilization practices not only on forest ecosystems but also on harvested wood products and the potential for wood to substitute for more emission-intensive materials. By quantifying GHG reductions alongside economic, socio-economic, and environmental consequences, the authors aim to provide an integrated framework for decision-makers to understand trade-offs and plan for long-term climate change mitigation in the land sector.
  • Case Study

    Uncertainty in Adaptation to Climate Change in Forest Management

    This report explores the challenges of forest management planning in British Columbia under the uncertainty of climate change. Recognizing that no single climate change prediction is definitive, the authors develop a conceptual framework using a robu...
    This report explores the challenges of forest management planning in British Columbia under the uncertainty of climate change. Recognizing that no single climate change prediction is definitive, the authors develop a conceptual framework using a robustness approach. Instead of seeking an optimal plan for a specific future, they aim to identify good-enough plans that perform reasonably well across a range of potential climate scenarios. The study uses the Quesnel Timber Supply Area as a case study, focusing on balancing timber supply and tree species diversity goals through multi-criteria decision analysis, considering both a status quo and an adaptation-focused forest renewal option.
  • Peer-Reviewed Literature

    Diversifying Managed Forests to Increase Resilience

    This paper investigates how diversifying managed forests in British Columbia could enhance their ability to recover from disturbances, specifically a recent mountain pine beetle epidemic linked to climate change. The authors used computer simulations...
    This paper investigates how diversifying managed forests in British Columbia could enhance their ability to recover from disturbances, specifically a recent mountain pine beetle epidemic linked to climate change. The authors used computer simulations to compare different forest management strategies over an 80-year period, assessing their impact on ecological resilience, timber supply, and economic outcomes. Their findings suggest that a strategy focused on proactively harvesting dominant, susceptible tree species and promoting a greater variety of planted and naturally regenerating trees leads to improved forest health, higher long-term harvest rates, and more stable economic returns without compromising economic viability. The study advocates for incorporating diversification as a key approach to increasing the resilience of managed forests in the face of future environmental challenges.
  • Peer-Reviewed Literature

    Carbon Sequestration in Managed Temperate Coniferous Forests under Climate Change

    This paper explores the future of carbon storage within these vital ecosystems of British Columbia. Using a computer model, the researchers investigated how interactions between tree species, fire, forest management, and a changing climate might affe...
    This paper explores the future of carbon storage within these vital ecosystems of British Columbia. Using a computer model, the researchers investigated how interactions between tree species, fire, forest management, and a changing climate might affect the ability of these forests to absorb and store carbon until 2050. A key aspect of their work was the introduction of a new metric, net sector productivity, which offers a more comprehensive way to account for carbon by including not only forest ecosystems but also harvested wood products. The study aimed to provide a better understanding for developing effective climate change mitigation and adaptive management strategies in these forests.
  • Peer-Reviewed Literature

    Applying Resilience Concepts in Forest Management A Retrospective Simulation Approach

    This paper investigates how different forest management strategies impact the resilience of forests facing climate change, specifically a mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia. The authors use a retrospective simulation approach from 1980...
    This paper investigates how different forest management strategies impact the resilience of forests facing climate change, specifically a mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia. The authors use a retrospective simulation approach from 1980 to 2060 to compare business as usual practices with two alternative strategies: one focused on increasing the diversity of replanted trees, and another that combined early harvesting of susceptible pine with diversified reforestation. The study assesses resilience by examining ecological factors like growing stock and tree species diversity, alongside socio-economic indicators such as timber flow stability and net revenue, concluding that proactive management enhancing diversity and reducing high-risk species leads to greater overall forest resilience in the face of climate-related disturbances.
  • Extension Note

    Using PrognosisBC to Analyze Partial-Cutting Options over a Rotation

    This document details an analysis using the PrognosisBC model to evaluate various partial-cutting silvicultural options for long-term forest management compared to clearcutting. The authors explore how different harvesting methods in a specific fores...
    This document details an analysis using the PrognosisBC model to evaluate various partial-cutting silvicultural options for long-term forest management compared to clearcutting. The authors explore how different harvesting methods in a specific forest type could meet sustainability targets, encompassing biodiversity, visual quality, old-growth recruitment, and timber production over a 100-year rotation. By modeling several scenarios and comparing their outputs, the study aims to familiarize readers with the PrognosisBC tool and demonstrate its utility in assessing trade-offs and informing complex forest management decisions, while also acknowledging the model's limitations and the crucial role of professional judgment.
  • Technical Report

    Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios Climate Change and Forest Range Management in BC

    This report examines the projected impacts of climate change on British Columbia's forest and range resources. It begins by outlining future climate scenarios for British Columbia, emphasizing anticipated increases in temperature and shifts in precip...
    This report examines the projected impacts of climate change on British Columbia's forest and range resources. It begins by outlining future climate scenarios for British Columbia, emphasizing anticipated increases in temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns based on global climate model projections. The report explores the potential ecological and economic consequences of these changes, including effects on species distribution, forest disturbances like fires and pests, and resource management practices. Finally, it proposes a framework for developing adaptation strategies and offers recommendations to proactively address the challenges posed by a changing climate.
  • Case Study

    Maintaining Fire in British Columbia's Ecosystems an Ecological Perspective

    This study explores the critical role of fire as a natural process in shaping and sustaining the diverse ecosystems of British Columbia. The first describes the various historical fire regimes across different ecosystem types in the province, categor...
    This study explores the critical role of fire as a natural process in shaping and sustaining the diverse ecosystems of British Columbia. The first describes the various historical fire regimes across different ecosystem types in the province, categorized by the frequency and intensity of fire events. It then emphasizes the ecological importance of fire, highlighting its contributions to biodiversity, ecosystem complexity, and nutrient cycling. Finally, the text examines ecological approaches to fire management, advocating for strategies that recognize and maintain the beneficial presence of fire on the landscape, while also considering factors like climate change and the presence of species at risk. This report serves as a guide for land managers and decision-makers to integrate ecological perspectives into fire management plans for the long-term health and resilience of British Columbia's forests and rangelands.
  • Technical Report

    Assessing Post-Fire Douglas-Fir Mortality and Douglas-Fir Beetle Attacks in the Northern Rocky Mountains

    This report presents models to predict the likelihood of Douglas-fir mortality and bark beetle infestation following wildfires. The authors developed these tools using data from past fires in Montana and Wyoming, aiming to improve both pre-fire plann...
    This report presents models to predict the likelihood of Douglas-fir mortality and bark beetle infestation following wildfires. The authors developed these tools using data from past fires in Montana and Wyoming, aiming to improve both pre-fire planning and post-fire management decisions. The report details the significant variables influencing tree survival and beetle attacks, such as crown scorch and cambium damage, and includes a supplementary field guide with visual aids and methods for field data collection, providing a practical resource for forest managers.
  • Technical Report

    A Field Guide to Predict Delayed Mortility of Fire - Damaged Ponderosa Pine Application and Validation of Malheur Model

    This technical report presents a field guide based on the Malheur model, a tool developed to predict the probability of delayed mortality in fire-damaged ponderosa pine trees. The report details the application and validation of this model, which use...
    This technical report presents a field guide based on the Malheur model, a tool developed to predict the probability of delayed mortality in fire-damaged ponderosa pine trees. The report details the application and validation of this model, which uses observable characteristics like bole and crown scorch to estimate mortality risk via a user-friendly graph. Findings from validation studies across different locations and fire types suggest the model offers a reliable way for land managers to assess post-fire tree survival for various management objectives, including evaluating burn success and planning post-fire activities.
  • Peer-Reviewed Literature

    Future Fire Risk and the Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Forest Rehabilitation in British Columbia Canada

    This paper investigates the interplay between future wildfire risk and the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of rehabilitating forests in British Columbia, Canada. Using modeling that simulates future fire scenarios and tracks carbon in forests an...
    This paper investigates the interplay between future wildfire risk and the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of rehabilitating forests in British Columbia, Canada. Using modeling that simulates future fire scenarios and tracks carbon in forests and harvested wood products, the study assesses whether post-fire salvage logging and replanting can lead to a net reduction in GHG emissions compared to natural regeneration. The authors explore the conditions under which these rehabilitation efforts yield climate benefits and compare this potential mitigation against the substantial GHG emissions from the projected increase in wildfires, questioning if resources might be better directed towards preventing fires in the first place.
  • Peer-Reviewed Literature

    Managing Forest Carbon and Landscape Capacities

    This paper investigates how to better integrate forest carbon management into overall forest resource planning. The authors developed a novel modeling system that combines forest disturbance, management activities, and carbon dynamics to estimate bot...
    This paper investigates how to better integrate forest carbon management into overall forest resource planning. The authors developed a novel modeling system that combines forest disturbance, management activities, and carbon dynamics to estimate both the current carbon stocks and the natural carbon-holding capacity of a forest landscape in British Columbia, Canada. By comparing these estimates under different harvesting scenarios, the study provides a framework and essential information for implementing nature-based climate change mitigation strategies in forest ecosystems. This paper aims to bridge the gap between traditional forest management and informed carbon management.
  • Case Study

    Timber-focused Evaluation of Partial Cutting in BC Under the Forest and Range Evaluation Program

    This document details a timber-focused evaluation of partially harvested forest areas within a specific management unit. Its core purpose was to determine if the resulting stand conditions aligned with the government's objectives for timber, as outli...
    This document details a timber-focused evaluation of partially harvested forest areas within a specific management unit. Its core purpose was to determine if the resulting stand conditions aligned with the government's objectives for timber, as outlined in the Forest and Range Practices Act. The evaluation employed both routine and intensive assessment methods to analyze various indicators, such as stocking levels, wood volume, and tree quality, and even used growth simulation to predict future stand development under different management scenarios. The report aimed to assess the effectiveness of partial harvesting practices in meeting timber objectives and to provide recommendations for improvement in practices, evaluation methods, and related policies.
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